Trump Increases Tariffs: Brazil Taxed at 25%, Canada Threatened Over Smoke

A 1974 law is brought back to life. In just a few days, the Trump administration has reopened two distinct trade fronts. The first, against Brazil, results in a 25% tariff that came into effect on July 22, 2026. The second, against Canada, remains a threat for now, linked to the smoke from wildfires that is engulfing American cities. Two cases, two very different pretexts. One common thread: a White House that spares no reason to wield the tariff weapon. Key points of this article: * Trump has revived a 1974 law to impose a 25% tariff on Brazil, circumventing a Supreme Court decision. * Canada could face tariff sanctions due to the smoke from its wildfires, an unprecedented justification. Brazil, a victim of a judicial circumvention. In February 2026, the Supreme Court had invalidated most of the tariffs imposed by Trump in the name of national emergency, ruling that he had overstepped his powers. The administration could then have had to refund up to $175 billion, an estimate from the Penn Wharton Budget Model reported at the time by the Journal du Coin. Trump immediately made it clear that he did not intend to refund anyone in the immediate future, promising a case that could drag through the courts for up to five years. Nevertheless, the administration did not give up; it changed its weapon. It is Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 that now serves as the legal basis for taxing Brazil at 25%, a text that allows for sanctioning a trading partner deemed unfair without going through the national emergency declaration rejected by the judges. A pure and simple circumvention, almost under the very eyes of the Supreme Court itself. Some products are exempt from the tax: beef, orange juice, airplanes, and aerospace parts, energy products. Brazilian President Lula (Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva) rejected the decision and promised countermeasures, intending to bring the matter before the WTO. However, Brazil's maneuvering room against the world's largest economy is, frankly speaking, limited. Canada, taxed for... the smoke from its forests. Just a few days later, a change of continent, a change of motive. Donald Trump accused Canada of "willful negligence" regarding the wildfires affecting the country and now threatens to add the cost of pollution generated by the smoke to the tariffs already applied to Ottawa. The wildfires, particularly active in northwestern Ontario, have caused air quality to drop in several major American cities in recent days. According to CNBC and The Hill, Trump claims that these costs "must necessarily be added to the tariffs that Canada is already paying," and announced that he wants to call Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney "to find out what they plan to do about it." A threatening tone, where simple bilateral cooperation on forest management could have sufficed. Carney acknowledged, in a message posted on X, that the fires had "significantly worsened" in recent weeks, forcing the evacuation of thousands of people in northwestern Ontario. A common thread: any reason will do. What stands out when putting the two cases side by side is not so much the rate applied but the method. For Brazil, a sophisticated legal circumvention, a different piece of legislation but with the same effect as what the Supreme Court had just prohibited. For Canada, an unprecedented cause-and-effect link between a natural disaster and trade policy. In both cases, pricing is no longer a tool reserved for genuine trade disputes. It becomes a reflex, applied to almost any available pretext at the moment. Other partners deemed "unfair," for reasons sometimes just as far removed from trade as such, could be next on the list. How far will the escalation go? Between Brazilian beef and Canadian smoke, the list of reasons invoked by Washington is growing faster than the negotiations meant to resolve them. Mexico, the European Union, and China remain under the impact of their own unresolved tariff disputes with the United States. Nothing prevents the Section 301 method, already honed on Brazil, from being applied there as soon as Washington needs a new pretext.

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