Opinion: Altcoins May Still Have a Chance, But VC Coins Are Truly Hopeless

Author: Haotian

After in-depth discussions with several experienced friends in the blockchain space, we reached a strong consensus on the survival rules of the current cycle. The market has completely shifted from "listening to stories and speculating on expectations" to "focusing on cash flow and validating real-world applications." Here are some trading principles for cryptocurrencies (for reference only):

1. Prioritize assets with real value capture capabilities.

In a bull market, the market is willing to pay for stories and expectations, while in a bear market, only real cash flow and buyback/burn records matter. The true "get out of jail free card" in this cycle is a protocol that can continuously generate fees and directly return these fees to token holders through buybacks, burns, or dividends. For example, recently popular launchpad concept tokens like $UNI, $PUMP, $PONS, and the buyback king of this cycle, $HYPE;

2. Only choose projects with proven Product-Market Fit (PMF) and a complete closed loop.

Because the next cycle, barring any surprises, will only have two major narratives related to "asset tokenization" and "Agentic Economy" (Perps, predictions, stablecoins, Payments), the market will shift from a preference for technical narratives to a practical application validation route. Projects without real users, real trading loops, and real income will be quickly filtered out. Concept tokens following this line of thought include: $ONDO, $VVV, $VIRTUAL, etc., with a focus on actual AUM trading volume and fee generation capabilities;

3. Choose assets with strong "consensus."

It must be acknowledged that after several cycles in the crypto industry, the only thing that can withstand the test is the word "consensus." Note that this consensus is one that naturally ferments in the market and has cross-cycle capabilities. Do not confuse it with the so-called "consensus" that is manufactured by industrialized hype. The truly promising assets are those that newcomers cannot fully understand but have good liquidity and are still thriving. For example, older Cult MEME tokens like $DOGE, $PEPE, $PEOPLE, or leading assets in various niche markets like $ZEC, $TAO, which have survived multiple bull and bear cycles, have strong community vitality and are easily targeted by major funds for repeated trading;

4. Avoid pure VC coins as much as possible.

If I say altcoins are dead, you might counter with the cyclical nature of finance, but if I say VC coins are dead, basically no one would disagree. This is because high FDV, low circulation, and continuous large unlocks of VC coins are destined to rely solely on the hype around airdrop expectations before and after the TGE. If a project lacks value capture capabilities, it will inevitably face insufficient development momentum, leading to the awkward situation of being dumped upon unlocking. This is the fundamental reason for the current cycle's "bull not crazy, bear deep" phenomenon, with a large number of starving VCs waiting to unlock and dump. How can retail investors dare to touch such tokens?

Note: The above is merely a summary of personal discussions with friends, and the mentioned tokens are only examples and do not constitute investment advice.

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