Week 16 On-Chain Data: Intensifying Structural Supply-Demand Imbalance, Data Reveals Solid Blueprint for Next Bull Run?

Original Article Title: "On-Chain Cryptocurrency Fusion: Exacerbating Structural Supply-Demand Imbalance, Data Reveals Solid Blueprint for Next Round of Growth? | WTR 4.28"

Original Source: WTR Research Institute

Weekly Review

During this week from April 21st to April 28th, Bitcoin reached a high near $95,758 and a low near $85,144, with a fluctuation range of around 12.46%. Observing the chip distribution chart, there was a large volume of chips transacted around 92,000, providing some support or resistance.

• Analysis:

1. 60000-68000 approximately 1.53 million chips;

2. 76000-89000 approximately 1.72 million chips;

3. 90000-100000 approximately 2.19 million chips;

• The probability of short-term decline not breaking through 75,000 to 80,000 is 80%;

• The probability of short-term rise not breaking through 95,000 to 100,000 is 50%.

Key News Aspects

Economic News Aspect

• Key Data Preview for the Week:

◦ Wednesday will see the release of Q1 GDP (previous value 2.4%, expected to drop significantly to 0.4%)

◦ Friday will see the release of non-farm payrolls (previous value 228k, expected to drop to 135k) and the unemployment rate (previous value 4.2%, expected 4.2%)

◦ Wednesday will also have Core PCE (previous value 2.6%, expected 3.2%), and Tuesday will have JOLTs Job Openings.

• Overall Expectation Pessimism: Economic and employment data expectations in the US this week are generally poor, with significant declines expected in GDP and non-farm payrolls.

• Recession Concerns: Barclays Bank questions whether the US can avoid an economic recession this year, believing this increases the rationale for a Fed rate cut.

• Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy:

◦ Policy Critique: Federal Reserve Chair candidate Kevin Warsh harshly criticizes the current Fed's predicament as a "self-inflicted" situation, believing it needs to undergo rigorous scrutiny and supervision, undertake a strategic reset to restore credibility.

◦ Blackout Period: The Federal Reserve has entered the blackout period before the May 7 meeting, with the market expecting the rate to remain unchanged for the third consecutive time at this meeting.

◦ Rate Cut Expectation: The market has a strong expectation of a rate cut but with a divergence in timing.

▪ LSEG data shows that the rate cut expectation for July has been fully priced in, while June still holds a possibility of a rate cut.

▪ CME data indicates that the probability of a rate cut in May is below 10%, with a 60-70% probability in June, and July being fully priced in by the market.

◦ Market Justification for Rate Cut: Apart from concerns over an economic recession, U.S. banks have warned that the dollar is in a long-term depreciation trend, and funds will continue to move out of the U.S. until the Fed cuts rates.

▪ Economist Javier Bianchi believes that tariffs are a negative demand shock (implying deflation), and the Fed must cut rates to avoid more severe economic consequences.

• Tariff Impact:

◦ Barclays Bank points out that Trump's relatively moderate tariff rhetoric in the recent period has temporarily calmed the market, but the results are still highly uncertain.

◦ Economists believe that tariffs are a negative demand shock with a deflationary effect, which is one of the reasons the Fed needs to cut rates.

• U.S. Dollar Outlook:

◦ U.S. banks have warned that the dollar is in a long-term depreciation trend.

Crypto Ecosystem News

1. Market Sentiment and Fund Flows:

◦ Market Sentiment Improvement: The cryptocurrency fear and greed index has risen to 54 (neutral). The CryptoQuant bull market index has reached 60, indicating a resurgence of bullish sentiment.

◦ Funds Flowing into Crypto Markets: Analyst ali_charts stated that nearly $9 billion has flowed into the crypto market in the past week, showing a renewed interest. Matrixport has observed preliminary signs of a return to USD-to-crypto conversions, improving liquidity.

◦ Stablecoin Growth: Tether issued an additional $1 billion USDT on April 28. The total market capitalization of stablecoins has grown by 1.61% in the past 7 days to $238.01 billion.

◦ Increased Demand: Analysts believe that there is a renewed increase in demand for BTC and stablecoin liquidity.

2. Crypto Market (BTC):

◦ Price Performance: The (BTC) price has risen to the $93,000-$95,000 range.

◦ Active Short-Term Traders: IntoTheBlock data shows that last week BTC's short-term trader holding increased significantly, indicating a resurgence in speculative demand, possibly foreshadowing the beginning of a larger rally.

◦ Market Expectations: A Bitfinex analyst pointed out that the market is increasingly expecting BTC to reach higher price levels in the second quarter of 2025.

3. Cryptocurrency (ETF):

◦ BTC Spot ETF: Last week saw a cumulative net inflow of $30.629 billion. Grayscale's GBTC saw 9 consecutive days of net inflows, adding $1.6 billion worth of BTC to its holdings. ETF inflows are seen as a sign of moderate market optimism.

◦ ETH Spot ETF: Last week saw a cumulative net inflow of $1.571 billion. Grayscale discussed custody issues with the SEC regarding the ETH ETP, proposing amendments to the application to allow for custody.

◦ XRP Futures ETF: The SEC approved three XRP futures ETFs, set to debut on April 30, 2025.

4. Regulation and Policy:

◦ U.S. Federal Level (SEC):

▪ SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce criticized the current U.S. crypto regulatory environment as chaotic (e.g., "playing a game of regulatory dark lava floor in the dark") and called for the establishment of clear compliance channels and guidelines.

▪ SEC approved an XRP futures ETF.

▪ SEC discussed ETH ETF custody issues with Grayscale.

◦ U.S. State Level: Two BTC reserve bills in Arizona advanced to a third reading and, if passed, would make it the first state to establish a BTC reserve.

5. Other:

◦ Hong Kong Investment Scams: Hong Kong police warned about being cautious of cryptocurrency-related investment scams on social platforms.

◦ Market Outlook: The market anticipates a gradual warming up of cryptocurrency assets in the summer once (potential) rate-cut pauses are over.

Long-Term Insights: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull Market/Bear Market/Structural Changes/Neutral State.

Medium-Term Exploration: Used to analyze the current stage we are in, how long it may last at this stage, and what conditions we may face.

Short-Term Observation: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the emergence of trends and the likelihood of certain events under certain premises.

Long-Term Insight

• Short-Term Holder Realized Price

• On-Chain Buy-Sell Depth Chart

• Illiquid Long-Term Whale

• US Spot ETF Flow

• Exchange Large Net Transfer Volume

(See Short-Term Holder Realized Price chart below)

On average, recently onboarded investors are currently in a profitable state. This significantly reduces potential selling pressure in the market, as short-term speculators (at $93,600) do not have an urgent breakeven or stop-loss requirement, but may instead increase their holding belief or add to their position due to profits. It is a positive market sentiment and a healthy signal of short-term holder status.

(See On-Chain Buy-Sell Depth Chart below)

This intuitively reflects the current market's on-chain supply-demand structure. A large amount of on-chain chip buying indicates a good market willingness and depth, with a strong willingness to support during pullbacks.

(See Illiquid Long-Term Whale chart below)

This once again confirms that the speed at which crypto assets move from a tradable state to long-term lockup is extremely rapid and shows no signs of slowing down. It reflects deep, sustained, and intense accumulation behavior in the market. "Active supply" is rapidly being withdrawn from the market, intensifying the supply-side tightening effect. This is a crucially important bullish mid-to-long-term fundamental.

(See US Spot ETF Flow chart below)

The renewed purchasing demand from the crucial regulatory channel of US Spot ETF not only returns but also maintains considerable strength and continuity. This volume continuously absorbs BTC supply from the market, being a significant incremental buying side source that strongly supports the price.

(See Exchange Large Net Transfer Volume chart below)

Confirmed that a large entity (whale) has been continuously and massively withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges. Their strategic accumulation behavior is still ongoing, further reducing immediate selling pressure on centralized exchanges and enhancing the market's long-term positive outlook.

Comprehensive Analysis and Deductive Logic Chain:

1. Starting Point - Macro Background and Market Sentiment: The macroeconomy has a cautious outlook (data expectation delta), but the market has strongly priced in future interest rate cuts. Cryptocurrency market sentiment has significantly warmed up, with accelerated capital inflows (macro/news side).

2. Validation - Demand-Side Confirmation: On-chain data strongly validates and reinforces the assessment of capital inflows and demand recovery; ETFs continue to see strong net inflows (Chart 4), short-term traders are active and profitable (Chart 1), and there is increased demand for BTC and stablecoins (news side).

3. Validation - Core Player Behavior: On-chain data shows that core players are extremely bullish and taking action; whales continue to massively withdraw from exchanges (Chart 5), and long-term holders' accumulation behavior is still rapidly occurring (Chart 3 - Illiquid Long-Term Whales).

4. Intensifying Supply-Demand Imbalance: The demand side (ETFs, internal demand) remains strong, while the supply side (whale withdrawals, continuous accumulation by long-term holders) is being rapidly drawn away from the market, leading to a sharp decrease in available supply, and an emerging and worsening supply-demand imbalance.

5. Current Situation: The market is in a healthy uptrend or consolidation phase pending an upward movement: decreased selling pressure from short-term holders (Chart 1), strong buying support below (Chart 2 on-chain chip buy walls), while facing resistance from sell orders above (Chart 2 on-chain cost sell walls) but encountering strong and sustained buying pressure (Chart 4 ETF + Chart 5 Whales + Internal Demand), and a continued supply squeeze (Chart 3 Illiquid Long-Term Whales).

6. Core Drivers: The main drivers of the current market come from structural supply-demand imbalances (introduction of new demand by ETFs, whales, and LTH - Long-Term Holders - accumulating leading to reduced supply) combined with a strong expectation for future macro liquidity improvement (interest rate cuts).

Future Outlook:

• Mid-Term: High probability of upward oscillation, challenging key resistance levels

◦ Strong on-chain support (Chart 2 buy walls, Chart 5 whales' continuous buying) and consistent inflow of demand (Chart 4 ETF inflows) will limit downside potential. Profit-taking by short-term holders (Chart 1) reduces the risk of panic selling. The market is highly likely to continue probing upwards, with the main challenge coming from short-term speculators' sell walls at certain profit percentage levels, such as $101,000 or $116,000).

◦ The future market tends to oscillate upwards or consolidate strongly at high levels. Breaking through key resistance levels around $10-10.1k is the main focus in the short term, requiring ETF inflows and whale purchases to sustainably absorb selling pressure from above.

◦ Pullbacks are expected to encounter strong support.

• Medium to Long Term: Driven by supply tightening, huge upside potential

◦ As long as whales continue net outflows (Chart 5) and non-liquid long-term whales maintain rapid growth (Chart 3), the supply tightening effect will become increasingly significant.

◦ Over time, fewer and fewer "active" bitcoins are available for trading. If by then the macro situation proceeds as expected with a decrease in interest rates, improving liquidity expectations, coupled with continuous structural demand from ETFs (Chart 4), it may trigger a more intense "supply squeeze" scenario.

◦ Outlook:

The medium to long-term outlook is very optimistic. Based on the current extremely strong on-chain fundamentals (rapid supply lock-in + continuous demand influx), the market is laying a solid foundation for the next significant uptrend. Beyond breaking key resistance levels (such as $100k), the upside potential is expected to further open up, with the specific pace influenced by macro catalysts, but the on-chain structure is already pointing to a clear upward trend.

Medium-Term Exploration

• Liquidity supply volume

• Stablecoin supply volume net flows

• Whale comprehensive score model

• Price level structure analysis

• Exchange trends net flows

(Chart below: Liquidity Supply Volume)

The liquidity supply volume is in a state of benign correction, indicating that the market may currently be slowly regaining momentum.

(Chart below: Stablecoin Supply Volume Net Flows)

There has been a significant recent recovery in purchasing power, suggesting that the market is slowly accumulating momentum.

(Chart below: Whale Comprehensive Score Model)

The whale still has a high willingness to buy and hold, and during the recent overall market uptrend, the whale has been consistently in a "very high" state. Currently, the market has a solid large group of holders, which may help stability. However, looking at it the other way around, the whale's consistent behavior can also impact the final outcome of the market.

(See the following chart for price level analysis)

From the current structure, the short-term key support level is around 93000. At the same time, as the market structure evolves, the key level of supply is around 100000. If buying pressure continues to increase or the whale group's willingness to hold does not decrease, there may be an expectation for the market to reach the key supply level. However, the current market may tend towards a complex structure of consolidation and power accumulation overlap. This can be seen in the chart below.

(See the following chart for exchange trend net flows)

Internally within exchanges, there was a significant accumulation of outgoing BTC flows earlier, which has now slowed down. However, as of now, there has not been a structural change indicating incoming accumulation potentially creating selling pressure. The market may still be within a safe range of adjustment.

Short-Term Observations

• Derivative Risk Index

• Options Intent Transaction Ratio

• Derivatives Trading Volume

• Options Implied Volatility

• Profit-and-Loss Transfer Amount

• New and Active Addresses

• Exchange A Net Flow

• Exchange B Net Flow

• High-Weighted Selling Pressure

• Global Buying Power Status

• Stablecoin Exchange Net Flow

• Layer-2 Exchange Data

Derivative Rating: The Risk Index is in the red zone, indicating an increase in derivative risk.

(See the following chart for Derivative Risk Index)

After a long absence from the market shorting, the Risk Index is still in the red zone. Considering the Risk Index along with the chip accumulation, the probability of further shorting is high.

(See the following chart for Options Intent Transaction Ratio)

The put/call ratio and trading volume have both declined, with the current put/call ratio at a relatively high level.

(See the Derivatives Trading Volume chart below)

The derivatives trading volume is at a medium to low level.

(See the Options Implied Volatility chart below)

The options implied volatility has not changed much in the short term. Sentiment rating: Neutral

(See the Profit/Loss Transfer Amount chart below)

In this market rise, the market's positive sentiment (blue line) has seen a noticeable rebound, reaching a short-term extreme value zone. Overall, the current market is still in a calm neutral state and has not truly entered a frenzy stage.

(See the New Addresses and Active Addresses chart below)

The new active addresses are at a medium to low level. On-chain and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, BTC continues to see a large outflow, while ETH has only a small outflow.

(See the Bitfinex Exchange Net Flows chart below)

Currently, there is a significant outflow of BTC.

(See the Bybit Exchange Net Flows chart below)

Surface-level observations show a continuous outflow of ETH on the exchange, but upon closer observation of the blue line, the balance of ETH net flows on the exchange is almost equal to that of the December market top period. In the short term, ETH's on-exchange selling pressure is likely to persist.

(See the Heavy Selling Pressure chart below)

No Heavyweight Selling Pressure.

Buyer Power Rating: Global buyer power has seen a slight rebound, stablecoin buyer power remains steady.

(See Global Buyer Power Status in the image below)

Global buyer power has experienced a slight rebound.

(See USDT Exchange Net Inflows in the image below)

Stablecoin buyer power remains overall consistent with last week.

Off-chain transaction data rating: This week, the website experienced technical issues, and off-chain transaction data is currently unavailable.

Weekly Summary:

News Summary:

The market is currently in a unique phase where there is a macro cautious expectation coexisting with strong internal crypto recovery signals, showing a certain degree of "decoupling." The crypto market, driven by strong ETF inflows, improving market sentiment, and active short-term traders, is displaying robust intrinsic momentum, seemingly trading in anticipation of future interest rate cuts. In the short term, this optimistic trend is expected to continue, but caution is advised regarding potential volatility from key macroeconomic data this week. The medium-term core driver of the market will be the actual realization of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations. Looking ahead, the foundation of a structural bull market is becoming more solid due to the current positive developments.

On-chain Long-term Insights:

1. The market's internal structure is extremely healthy and strong, characterized by robust demand (continuous ETF inflows);

2. Core players are accumulating steadfastly (whale entities making large withdrawals);

3. Supply is rapidly being locked up (rising non-liquid long-term whale entities);

4. Short-term holders have alleviated selling pressure.

• Market Tone:

The market currently possesses upward momentum or support in the short term;

In the medium to long term, the increasingly pronounced supply-demand imbalance is laying the groundwork for a potential "supply squeeze" rally and a more significant uptrend, with an overall positive outlook.

On-chain Mid-term Exploration:

1. Liquidity is undergoing a benign recovery, and market momentum is gradually picking up.

2. Buyer power has significantly rebounded, and the market is poised for potential energy release.

3. The whale has a strong holding intention and is currently supporting the price.

4. The current support level is 93,000, the stock top is 100,000, and the market is undergoing a momentum adjustment.

5. The outflow trend of the trading platform is slowing down, currently within a secure adjustment boundary.

• Market Adjustment:

Adjustment, Momentum

The market as a whole is in a complex structure of adjustment and momentum building. Currently, there is liquidity restoration, whales have a buying and holding intention, and the market remains stable.

On-chain Short-term Observations:

1. The risk index is in the red zone, derivative risk is increasing.

2. New active addresses are relatively low.

3. Market sentiment rating: Neutral.

4. Overall, exchanges are seeing continuous large outflows of BTC, with only a small amount of ETH outflow.

5. Global buying power is slightly recovering, stablecoin buying power remains stable.

6. In the short term, the probability of not breaking below 75,000 to 80,000 is 80%; the probability of not breaking above 95,000 to 100,000 in the short term is 50%.

• Market Adjustment:

The market has broken through the short-term holder's cost line (93K) and there are a large number of chips traded around this price level. Both market positive sentiment and buying power have slightly increased. Short-term expectations suggest that the market is likely to continue shorting at the current price level after oscillation, with a low risk of pullback.

Risk Warning: The above is all market discussion and exploration, not directional advice for investment; please treat it carefully and guard against market black swan risks.

This article is a submission and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.