US Stock Market Bubble May Exceed 1929, S&P 500 Faces Extreme Correction Risk

On July 27, economist Alasdair Macleod warned that the valuation bubble in the US stock market may have surpassed that of the eve of the Great Depression in 1929, with financial markets facing the risk of a "final total crash." Macleod pointed out that the imbalance of supply and demand in the US Treasury market, a decrease in overseas buyers, and rising US debt pressures could drive Treasury yields higher, thereby impacting stock valuations. He believes that if market confidence reverses, the S&P 500 index could face a value retracement of over 90%. The scale of US debt continues to rise, with financing and refinancing pressures potentially reaching about $10 trillion to $11 trillion in the next 12 months. As the number of Treasury buyers decreases, the Federal Reserve may be forced to stabilize the market through balance sheet expansion and money printing, further weakening the purchasing power of fiat currency. Macleod argues that modern financial assets rely on the credit system, and stocks, bank deposits, and cash in dollars all carry counterparty risks, while gold and silver, as physical assets that do not rely on government credit, may become safe-haven choices in an extreme financial risk environment.

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