Oscar Awards Preview: Who Are the Whales in the Prediction Markets Betting On?
Original Title: "Oscar Awards Preview: Who Are the Big Players in the Prediction Market Betting On?"
Original Author: Asher, Odaily Planet Daily
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony for the year 2026 will be held on March 15. As the awards night approaches, discussions about "who will win" are heating up.
Beyond the predictions of traditional media, film critics, and fans, the crypto prediction market is also providing a set of answers. So, in the eyes of prediction market participants, who are the top contenders for this year's Oscars in each major category?
Next, Odaily Planet Daily will, based on the latest market data from Polymarket, systematically review the winning odds for each award. At the same time, we will analyze the betting positions of the top addresses holding relevant event positions to identify potential trading opportunities.
Best Picture Award: "One Battle After Another" Leads Temporarily with a 76% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Event: Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner, with a trading volume of over $29 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-picture-winner.
Currently, in the Best Picture category, "One Battle After Another" is temporarily in the lead with a 75% real-time probability, while Sinners ranks second with a probability of 20%.

· Address Holding Analysis
Address Holding YES for "One Battle After Another" First: 0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397, this address has a high win rate of 89.7%, with an average price of 54.8 cents for holding YES for "One Battle After Another".

Address Holding Only for "One Battle After Another" Single Event: 0x8f49c70ce8e353c0531d39f5448f0ba5f561bf8d, this address bought nearly 10,000 YES positions for "One Battle After Another" at an average price of 74 cents five days ago and currently only holds positions for the single event of "One Battle After Another" winning Best Picture.

Best Actor Film Award: Michael B. Jordan Currently Leads with 57% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Event: Oscars 2026: Best Actor Winner, with a trading volume of nearly $7 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actor-winner.
Currently, in the Best Actor Film Award category, Michael B. Jordan leads with a 57% real-time probability, followed by Timothée Chalamet in second place with a probability of 34%.
It is worth mentioning that until the 7th of this month, Timothée Chalamet had consistently held the top spot in terms of winning probability, peaking at an 80% chance.

· Holdings Address Analysis
Michael B. Jordan's YES Top Address: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271, with a win rate of only 48% and a historical P&L of -$200,000.
Michael B. Jordan's NO Top Address: 0xafbacaeeda63f31202759eff7f8126e49adfe61b, with a win rate of 53% and a historical P&L of $172,000.
Timothée Chalamet's YES Top Address: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271, which is also Michael B. Jordan's YES Top Address. This address shows a bet placed on either Michael B. Jordan or Timothée Chalamet winning the Best Actor Award.
Timothée Chalamet's NO Top Address: 0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344, with a high win rate of 63% and a historical P&L of $2.82 million.

Best Director Award: Paul Thomas Anderson Currently Leading with 91% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Event: Oscars 2026: Best Director Winner, with a trading volume of nearly $5 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-director-winner.
Currently, in the Best Director Award category, Paul Thomas Anderson is leading with a 94% real-time probability, making this award almost a foregone conclusion, or a "yield farm."

· Holder Address Analysis
Paul Thomas Anderson Holder YES First Address: 0x998154d8eb4ba7c4b34b10d76b9742d922d7dec4, with a win rate of up to 83.6%. The average price for Paul Thomas Anderson Holder YES is 93 cents.

Best Actress Film Award: Jessie Buckley Currently Leading with 97% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Event: Oscars 2026: Best Actress Winner, with a trading volume of over $1.5 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actress-winner.
Currently, in the Best Actress Film Award category, Jessie Buckley is leading with 97% real-time probability, making this award almost a foregone conclusion, or a "yield farm."

Other Popular Awards
Furthermore, other awards with high discussion volume are:
1. Best Supporting Actress Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actress-winner), Amy Madigan is currently leading with 52% real-time odds; Teyana Taylor is in second place with a 26% probability; Wunmi Mosaku is in third place with a 21% probability.

II. Best Supporting Actor Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actor-winner), Sean Penn is currently in first place with a real-time odds of 73%; Stellan Skarsgård is in second place with a probability of 19%; Delroy Lindo is in third place with a probability of 7%.

III. Best Cinematography Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-cinematography-winner), One Battle After Another is currently in first place with a real-time odds of 73%; Sinners is in second place with a probability of 20%.

IV. Best Original Screenplay Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-original-screenplay-winner), Sinners is currently in first place with a real-time odds of 96%, also known as "The Financial Bureau".

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Sun Valley Releases 2025 Financial Report: Bitcoin Mining Revenue Reaches $670 Million, Accelerating Transformation to AI Infrastructure Platform
On March 16, 2026, in Dallas, Texas, USA, CanGu Company (New York Stock Exchange code: CANG, hereinafter referred to as "CanGu" or the "Company") today announced its unaudited financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. As a btc-42">bitcoin mining enterprise relying on a globally operated layout and dedicated to building an integrated energy and AI computing power platform, CanGu is actively advancing its business transformation and infrastructure development.
• Financial Performance:
Total revenue for the full year 2025 was $688.1 million, with $179.5 million in the fourth quarter.
Bitcoin mining business revenue for the full year was $675.5 million, with $172.4 million in the fourth quarter.
Full-year adjusted EBITDA was $24.5 million, while the fourth quarter was -$156.3 million.
• Mining Operations and Costs:
A total of 6,594.6 bitcoins were mined throughout the year, averaging 18.07 bitcoins per day; of which 1,718.3 bitcoins were mined in the fourth quarter, averaging 18.68 bitcoins per day.
The average mining cost for the full year (excluding miner depreciation) was $79,707 per bitcoin, and for the fourth quarter, it was $84,552;
The all-in sustaining costs were $97,272 and $106,251 per bitcoin, respectively.
As of the end of December 2025, the company has cumulatively produced 7,528.4 bitcoins since entering the bitcoin mining business.
• Strategic Progress:
The company has completed the termination of the American Depositary Receipt (ADR) program and transitioned to a direct listing on the NYSE to enhance information transparency and align with its strategic direction, with a long-term goal of expanding its investor base.
CEO Paul Yu stated: "2025 marked the company's first full year as a bitcoin mining enterprise, characterized by rapid execution and structural reshaping. We completed a comprehensive adjustment of our asset system and established a globally distributed mining network. Additionally, the company introduced a new management team, further strengthening our capabilities and competitive advantage in the digital asset and energy infrastructure space. The completion of the NYSE direct listing and USD pricing also signifies our transformation into a global AI infrastructure company."
"As we enter 2026, the company will continue to optimize its balance sheet structure and enhance operational efficiency and cost resilience through adjustments to the miner portfolio. At the same time, we are advancing our strategic transformation into an AI infrastructure provider. Leveraging EcoHash, we will utilize our capabilities in scalable computing power and energy networks to provide cost-effective AI inference solutions. The relevant site transformations and product development are progressing simultaneously, and the company is well-positioned to sustain its execution in the new phase."
The company's Chief Financial Officer, Michael Zhang, stated: "By 2025, the company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth through its scaled mining operations. Despite recording a net loss of $452.8 million from ongoing operations, mainly due to one-time transformation costs and market-driven fair value adjustments, the company, from a financial perspective, will reduce its leverage, optimize its Bitcoin reserve strategy and liquidity management, introduce new capital to strengthen its financial position, and seize investment opportunities in high-potential areas such as AI infrastructure while navigating market volatility."
The total revenue for the fourth quarter was $1.795 billion. Of this, the Bitcoin mining business contributed $1.724 billion in revenue, generating 1,718.3 Bitcoins during the quarter. Revenue from the international automobile trading business was $4.8 million.
The total operating costs and expenses for the fourth quarter amounted to $4.56 billion, primarily attributed to expenses related to the Bitcoin mining business, as well as impairment of mining machines and fair value losses on Bitcoin collateral receivables.
This includes:
· Cost of Revenue (excluding depreciation): $1.553 billion
· Cost of Revenue (depreciation): $38.1 million
· Operating Expenses: $9.9 million (including related-party expenses of $1.1 million)
· Mining Machine Impairment Loss: $81.4 million
· Fair Value Loss on Bitcoin Collateral Receivables: $171.4 million
The operating loss for the fourth quarter was $276.6 million, a significant increase from a loss of $0.7 million in the same period of 2024, primarily due to the downward trend in Bitcoin prices.
The net loss from ongoing operations was $285 million, compared to a net profit of $2.4 million in the same period last year.
The adjusted EBITDA was -$156.3 million, compared to $2.4 million in the same period last year.
The total revenue for the full year was $6.881 billion. Of this, the revenue from the Bitcoin mining business was $6.755 billion, with a total output of 6,594.6 Bitcoins for the year. Revenue from the international automobile trading business was $9.8 million.
The total annual operating costs and expenses amount to $1.1 billion.
Specifically, they include:
· Revenue Cost (excluding depreciation): $543.3 million
· Revenue Cost (depreciation): $116.6 million
· Operating Expenses: $28.9 million (including related-party expenses of $1.1 million)
· Miner Impairment Loss: $338.3 million
· Bitcoin Collateral Receivable Fair Value Change Loss: $96.5 million
The full-year operating loss is $437.1 million. The continuing operations net loss is $452.8 million, while in 2024, there was a net profit of $4.8 million.
The 2025 non-GAAP adjusted net profit is $24.5 million (compared to $5.7 million in 2024). This measure does not include share-based compensation expenses; refer to "Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures" for details.
As of December 31, 2025, the company's key assets and liabilities are as follows:
· Cash and Cash Equivalents: $41.2 million
· Bitcoin Collateral Receivable (Non-current, related party): $663.0 million
· Miner Net Value: $248.7 million
· Long-Term Debt (related party): $557.6 million
In February 2026, the company sold 4,451 bitcoins and repaid a portion of related-party long-term debt to reduce financial leverage and optimize the asset-liability structure.
As per the stock repurchase plan disclosed on March 13, 2025, as of December 31, 2025, the company had repurchased a total of 890,155 shares of Class A common stock for approximately $1.2 million.

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