Musk Predicts AI Will Complete All Digital Tasks by End of Next Year, Humanoid Robot Productivity to Exceed Humanity Within a Decade

During a video address at the G20 central bank governors and finance ministers summit, Elon Musk predicted that AI software will reach "Stockfish level" within 12 to 18 months and will complete all digital tasks by the end of next year. He estimated that AI could boost global economic growth by 20% to 30%, equivalent to an annual increase of $20 trillion to $30 trillion. In the robotics sector, Musk forecasted that within a decade, there will be 1 billion humanoid robots, each producing at least five times more than a human, resulting in a total productivity that surpasses that of all humanity combined. He pointed out that the practicality of robots depends on the product of AI software, AI chips, and electromechanical flexibility, all of which are improving exponentially, and robots will begin to manufacture other robots, leading to recursive growth. At the same time, Musk warned that the development of AI faces a power bottleneck, predicting that by 2027, AI chips will face a power shortfall of at least 15 gigawatts. The production rate of AI chips is growing by 40% to 50% annually, while available power outside of China is only increasing by 10% to 20% per year. He urged regulators to adopt a "default legal" stance towards new technologies like AI to encourage their development.

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