Has the Crypto Market Topped Out? Nearly 20% Indicator Has Hit Its Peak and Retreated

Original Article Title: "Is the Crypto Market Due for a Top? Nearly 20% Indicator Has Topped and Retraced"

Original Article Author: Viee, Biteye

Each bull market not only creates wealth but also generates numerous wealth illusions. When the market is euphoric, few can elegantly "top out" while remaining sober. Faced with a volatile market, how to exit near the peak timing, avoid asset shrinkage due to deep retracements, requires us to comprehensively assess multiple market indicators.

In this article, Biteye analyzed 15 common top-out indicators and found that one-fifth of the indicators had reached the top-out range in the past 24 years. These include: Bitcoin Rhodl Ratio, USDT Current Account Investment, and Altcoin Seasonality Index. In light of this, how should we respond to the market's future development?

Part One: Indicator Introduction

1. AHR999 Coin Hoarding Index

This index was created by Weibo user ahr999 to assist Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging users in making investment decisions based on timing strategies. The index implies the short-term dollar-cost averaging return of Bitcoin and the deviation of Bitcoin's price from its expected valuation.

Indicator Range:

· >4: Suggests a significant reduction in position

· 1.2-4: Observation area, remain cautious

· 0.45-1.2: Dollar-cost averaging zone, can gradually build positions

· <0.45: Strongly indicates bottom fishing territory

Current Status: The index value is 1.21, not yet at the top, in the observation zone, caution is advised.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/en/pro/i/ahr999

2. AHR999 Top-Out Indicator

The AHR999 Top-Out Indicator is the sister indicator of the Coin Hoarding Index, specifically used to identify the market top area. This indicator assesses whether the market is overheated by observing the price deviation from the long-term trend line. It has provided accurate warning signals at the tops of both the 2017 and 2021 major bull markets and is a crucial tool to avoid chasing highs.

Indicator Range:

· <=0.45: Severely overheated, consider topping out

Current Status: The indicator value is 2.48, and no top signal has occurred in this cycle.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/en/pro/i/ahr999-escape

3. Pi Cycle Top Indicator

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator predicts a potential market top by comparing the 111-day moving average and the 350-day moving average. Historically, when moving averages cross, Bitcoin's price has typically been close to a cycle top, indicating a potential market reversal.

Signal Characteristics:

· Two-line cross: Top signal triggered

· Fast divergence: Bearish outlook

· Gradual convergence: Cautionary sign

Current Status: The two moving averages still have a significant distance, and no top signal has emerged yet. The next cross is expected in October 2025.

Link: https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-prediction/

4. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart

The Rainbow Chart is an intuitive long-term valuation model that divides the Bitcoin price range into 9 color bands. The model is based on logarithmic regression, considering Bitcoin's long-term growth characteristics and cyclical features. In multiple market cycles, the Rainbow Chart has provided good guidance, especially in identifying extreme areas.

Indicator Ranges:

· Red: Bubble territory, sell signal

· Yellow: Overbought zone, stay cautious

· Green: Healthy region, hold zone

· Blue: Value zone, buying opportunity

Current Status: The price is in the green region, indicating relatively reasonable valuation, and no top signal has emerged.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/en/pro/i/bitcoin-rainbow-chart

5. Bitcoin Terminal Price Indicator

The Terminal Price is calculated by multiplying the Transfer Price by 21. The Transfer Price is determined by dividing the coin days destroyed by the existing Bitcoin supply and its circulation time. This metric effectively filters out market speculation and reflects the true value of the Bitcoin network.

Signal Feature: The closer the Bitcoin price is to the red line, the closer the market is to the top.

Current Status: Not Yet Topped

Link: https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/terminal-price/

6. Bitcoin Dominance

The Dominance indicator reflects Bitcoin's dominance in the overall cryptocurrency market. This indicator is commonly used to assess market cycles and fund flows. A decrease in Bitcoin Dominance usually indicates funds starting to move towards altcoins. Historical data shows that changes in Bitcoin Dominance often signal turning points in the entire cryptocurrency market.

Indicator Ranges:

· 65%: Bitcoin Bullish Phase

· 40-65%: Balanced Phase

· <40%: Altcoin Active Phase

Current Status: Dominance at around 60%, in a relatively balanced range.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/en/pro/i/MarketCap

7. Bitcoin CBBI Index

The CBBI (Combined Bitcoin Binary Index) is a comprehensive index that combines multiple technical indicators and on-chain data to effectively identify turning points in bull and bear cycles. Its strength lies in reducing the limitations of a single indicator through multidimensional data.

Indicator Range: Above 90 indicates the market has reached the top.

Current Status: Index value is 79, showing the market is slightly overheated but has not yet topped.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/en/pro/i/cbbi-index

8. Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-Score is a key on-chain analysis indicator that assesses market cycles by comparing market value to realized value deviation. When this indicator is too high, it indicates Bitcoin's market value is overestimated relative to its realized value, which is detrimental to Bitcoin's price. Conversely, when it is low, it shows undervaluation. Based on historical experience, when this indicator is at a historical high, the probability of Bitcoin price trending downwards increases, so caution must be taken to avoid chasing highs.

Indicator Range: Greater than 5 indicates the market has reached the top.

Current Status: Index is 2.5, not yet at the top.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/en/pro/i/bitcoin-mvrv-zscore

9. Bitcoin Rhodl Ratio

The Rhodl Ratio is a composite on-chain metric that evaluates potential market turning points by comparing the behavioral characteristics of hodlers at different time periods. When the RHODL Ratio starts approaching the red zone, it may indicate an overheated market. Historically, this has always been a good time for investors to take profits in each cycle.

Indicator Range: Approaching the red zone may indicate an overheated market. Ratio>= 10000 suggests the market is nearing the top.

Current Status: Currently not in the red zone, but this indicator entered the top zone in November 2024.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/en/pro/i/r-hodl-ratio

10. Bitcoin Mayer Multiple

The Bitcoin Mayer Multiple is a technical indicator proposed by Trace Mayer for analyzing the state of the Bitcoin market. It evaluates the market's relative valuation level by comparing Bitcoin's current price to its 200-day moving average (200DMA).

Indicator Range:

· Mayer Multiple> 1: Indicates the current Bitcoin price is above its 200-day moving average, suggesting the market may be overbought.

· Mayer Multiple <1: Indicates the current Bitcoin price is below its 200-day moving average, suggesting the market may be oversold.

· Mayer Multiple ≈ 1: Indicates the current Bitcoin price is close to its 200-day moving average, suggesting the market may be in a relatively balanced state.

· Historically, when the Mayer Multiple exceeds 2.4, it usually signals an overheated market, possibly leading to a correction or bear market. When the Mayer Multiple is below 0.8, the market may be undervalued, presenting a potential buying opportunity.

Current Status: The index is 1.26, indicating an overbought market but has not yet reached its peak.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/en/pro/i/mayer-multiple

11. ETF Continuous Net Outflow Days

This indicator tracks the fund flow of Bitcoin ETFs, where the continuous net outflow days often reflect institutional investors' confidence. This is a relatively new indicator that has gradually gained market attention since the launch of spot ETFs.

Signal Characteristics:

· 10 Days: Significant Bearish Signal

· 5-10 Days: Caution Needed

· <5 Days: Normal Fluctuation

Current Status: Continuous net outflow for 1 day, within the normal market fluctuation range. The maximum in this period was a continuous 8 days, with no occurrence of a 10-day scenario.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/en/bitcoin-etf

12. ETF-to-BTC Ratio

This indicator reflects the percentage of Bitcoin held by ETFs in circulation, used to assess institutional participation. This indicator can reflect the level of acceptance and depth of involvement of traditional financial institutions in Bitcoin.

Signal Characteristics: <=3.5% indicates a top avoidance indicator, also implying low institutional participation

Current Status: The ratio is close to 6%, indicating that institutional participation is in a benign growth stage.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/en/bitcoin-etf

13. USDT Current Savings Rate

The USDT current savings rate is an important indicator to measure the market fund cost. This indicator reflects the overall liquidity status of the cryptocurrency market.

Signal Characteristics:>=29% is in the top avoidance range

Current Status: The rate is approximately 6.68%, within a normal range. However, in March 2024, this indicator entered the top range, reaching 65%.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/en/pro/i/MarginFeeChart

14. Shitcoin Season Index

This index is used to determine whether the market is entering a period of heightened activity in shitcoins. By comparing the performance of Bitcoin with that of major shitcoins, one can assess whether funds are starting to flow into riskier, smaller-cap coins.

Index Range:

· 75: Shitcoin Season, above 75 indicates that the market is approaching its peak

· 25-75: Balanced Phase

· <25: Bitcoin Dominance Phase

Current Status: The index is at 41; however, during December 2024, the index entered the peak range, reaching 88.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/en/pro/i/alt-coin-season

15. MicroStrategy Cost Index

This index tracks MicroStrategy's average Bitcoin holding cost as a reference benchmark for institutional investors. As MicroStrategy is one of the largest corporate Bitcoin holders, its cost basis often serves as a key psychological level in the market.

Index Range:

· Current Price Above Cost: Institutional Profit Zone

· Current Price Near Cost: Support Level

· Current Price Below Cost: Potential Buying Opportunity

Current Status: MicroStrategy's average cost is around 60,000, placing it in the institutional profit zone.

Link: https://www.coinglass.com/en/pro/i/micro-strategy-cost

II. Conclusion

"Bear markets make you go bankrupt, bull markets make you go back to poverty." Stay rational during market euphoria, exit entirely during madness—it’s much harder to buy at the bottom. Currently, only some indicators are showing signs of a market top, which does not definitively mean the entire market has peaked. If you feel there is a risk of a market top, you may also consider:

Setting partial sell-off points, without expecting the perfect top.

Convert your gains into a stablecoin or fiat currency instead of turning to higher-risk altcoins.

Sell at a high point preferably early, not late. Taking profits is not the end, but preparation for the next round of accumulation.

Remember, every peak is an opportunity for some and a wealth trap for most. The market provides equal opportunities to everyone, but those who can seize the opportunity are often the ones who are prepared.

This article is contributed content and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.