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Fake Volume, Pump and Dump: Exposing High FDV Token Manipulation
原文标题：Obfuscate the float, pump the token. Uncovering Plato's cave of False float/High FDV tokens
原文作者：Mosi
原文编译：深潮 TechFlow
在代币领域，认知即一切。就像柏拉图的「洞穴寓言」一样，许多投资者被困在阴影中——被不良行为者扭曲的价值投影所误导。在本文中，我将揭露一些由风险投资（VC）资助的项目如何系统性地通过以下方式操控其代币价格：
· 将代币的虚假流通量（FALSE float）尽可能维持在高位。
· 将代币的真实流通量（REAL float）尽可能压低（以便更容易拉高代币价格）。
· 利用真实流通量极低的事实来推高代币价格。
从「低流通量/高 FDV（完全稀释估值）」的模式转向「虚假流通量/高 FDV」的模式。
图：不！我不是低浮动/高 FDV 代币！我是「社区优先」!
今年早些时候，模因币（memecoins）人气飙升，将许多 VC 支持的代币挤出了主流视野。这些代币被称为「低流通量/高 FDV」代币。然而，随着 Hyperliquid 的推出，许多 VC 支持的代币变得难以投资。面对这种情况，一些项目并没有解决其存在缺陷的代币经济模型，也没有专注于开发真正的产品，而是选择加倍努力，通过人为压低流通供应量，同时公开声称相反的内容。
抑制流通量对这些项目有利，因为这使得价格操控更加容易。通过幕后交易——例如基金会将锁仓代币出售换取现金，然后在公开市场回购——可以显著提高资本效率。此外，这种做法对做空者和杠杆交易者带来了极大的风险，因为低真实流通量使这些代币极易受到价格拉高和暴跌的影响。
接下来，让我们看看一些实际的例子。这绝不是一个详尽的列表：
1、@MANTRA_Chain 这是最明显的一个例子。对于那些好奇一个仅有 400 万美元总锁仓价值（TVL）的项目，如何能拥有超过 100 亿美元完全稀释估值（FDV）的人来说，答案非常简单：他们掌控了大部分的$OM 流通量。Mantra 在一个单一的钱包中持有 792M $OM（即 90% 的供应量）。这并不复杂——他们甚至懒得将这些供应分散到多个钱包中。
当我向 @jp_mullin888 询问此事时，他声称这是一个「镜像存储钱包」。这完全是胡说八道。
那么，我们如何得知 Mantra 的真实流通量（real float）呢？
我们可以通过以下计算得出：
980M（流通供应量）- 792M $OM（团队控制的部分）= 188M $OM
然而，这 188M $OM 的数字可能也并不准确。团队仍然控制着相当一部分的$OM，他们利用这些代币对自己的空投进行女巫攻击（sybil attack），进一步榨取退出流动性（exit liquidity），并继续控制流通量。他们部署了约 100M $OM 用于女巫攻击自己的空投，因此我们也需要从真实流通量中扣除这部分代币。更多相关信息可以在此查看：
最终，我们得出的真实流通量是……咚咚锵……仅有 88M $OM！（假设团队没有控制更多的供应量，但这个假设显然很不靠谱）。这使得 Mantra 的真实流通量仅为 526 万美元，与 CoinMarketCap 上显示的 63 亿美元形成了巨大的差距。
较低的真实流通量（real float）让操控$OM 的价格变得轻而易举，同时也能轻松清算任何做空仓位。交易者应该对做空$OM 感到恐惧，因为团队掌控着大部分流通量，可以随意拉高或砸盘价格。这种情况就像试图与 @DWFLabs 在某个垃圾币（shitcoin）上对赌一样。
我怀疑当前的价格走势背后可能涉及 Tritaurian Capital——这家公司从 @SOMA_finance 借贷了 150 万美元（@jp_mullin888 是 SOMA 的联合创始人，而 Tritaurian 由 Jim Preissler 拥有，后者是 JPM 在 Trade.io 的老板）——以及中东的一些基金和做市商。这些操作进一步压缩了真实流通量，使其计算变得更加困难。
这或许也解释了他们不愿意释放空投并决定实施锁仓期的原因。如果他们真的进行了空投，真实流通量将显著增加，可能会导致价格大幅下跌。
这并不是什么复杂的金融工程，但看起来像是一个有意为之的计划，目的是减少代币的真实流通量并推高$OM 的价格。
2、@movementlabsxyz：在空投领取过程中，Movement 允许用户选择以下两种方式之一：在以太坊主网（ETH Mainnet）领取空投；为了获得少量奖励，在他们尚未推出的链上领取空投。然而，在领取开启仅数小时后，他们采取了一系列操作：
· 对所有在以太坊主网领取的用户增加了一笔费用，该费用为 0.015 ETH（当时约为 56 美元），外加以太坊的燃气费（Gas Fee），这让许多小额余额的测试网用户望而却步；
· 将以太坊主网的分配量减少了 80% 以上，同时仍然保留上述费用；
· 停止了领取流程；
· 将领取时间限制在非常短的期限内。
结果显而易见，只有 5870 万枚 MOVE 被领取。也就是说，在原本计划发放的 10 亿 MOVE 中，仅有 5% 被成功领取。
接下来，让我们像分析 Mantra 一样，对 MOVE 进行相同的计算。据 CoinMarketCap 显示，MOVE 的自报流通供应量为 24.5 亿（2,450,000,000）。
然而，根据 Move 的饼图数据，空投后应该只有 20 亿（2B，基金会+初始领取）代币在流通。因此，这里就已经开始出现可疑操作，因为有 4.5 亿（450,000,000）MOVE 无法被解释。
计算如下：
2,450,000,000 MOVE（自报流通供应量）- 1,000,000,000 MOVE（基金会分配）- 941,000,000 MOVE（未领取供应量）= 5.09 亿（509,000,000）MOVE，或 2.03 亿美元的真实流通量（REAL float）。
这意味着，真实流通量仅为自报流通供应量的 20%！此外，我很难相信这 5.09 亿 MOVE 中的每一枚都在用户手中，但暂且不论这一点，我们假设这就是实际的真实流通量。
那么，在这段真实流通量极低的时期里，发生了什么？
· Movement 向 WLFI 支付费用，要求他们购买 MOVE 代币。
· Movement 向 REX-Osprey 支付费用，要求他们为 MOVE 申请 ETF。
· Rushi（相关负责人）去了纽约证券交易平台（NYSE）。
· Movement 与基金和做市商进行了一系列复杂操作，将锁仓代币出售给他们以换取现金，从而让这些机构可以竞价并推高价格。
· 团队在 Bybit 平台的价格顶点时存入了 1.5 亿（150,000,000）MOVE 代币。他们可能从价格顶点开始抛售，因为自那之后代币价格一直在下跌。
· 在代币生成事件（TGE）前后，团队每月向一家中国的 KOL（关键意见领袖）营销机构支付 70 万美元，以便在 Binance 上架，从而在亚洲市场获取更多退出流动性。
这是巧合吗？我不这么认为。
正如 Rushi 所说：
Kaito：
@Kaitoai 是这个列表中唯一一个拥有真正产品的项目。然而，他们在当前的空投活动中也采取了类似的行为。
正如 CBB 上文指出的那样，Kaito 分发了他们的空投，但只有很小一部分人实际领取了。这同样影响了真实流通量（Real Float）。让我们来计算一下：
根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据，Kaito 的流通供应量为 2.41 亿（241,000,000），市值为 3.14 亿美元。我假设这个数字包括了：Binance 持币用户、流动性激励、基金会分配以及初始社区和领取份额。
让我们拆解这些数据，找出真实流通量：
真实流通量 = 241,000,000 KAITO - 68,000,000（未领取的数量）+ 100,000,000（基金会持有）= 7300 万（73,000,000）KAITO
这意味着真实流通量对应的市值仅为 9490 万美元，远低于 CMC 报告的数值。
Kaito 是这个列表中唯一一个我愿意给予一定信任的项目，因为他们至少拥有一个能够产生收入的产品，并且据我所知，他们并没有像其他两个团队那样参与过多的可疑操作。
解决方案与结论
1、CMC 和 Coingecko 应列出代币的真实流通量，而不是团队提交的那些不可信的数字。
2、Binance 等交易平台应以某种方式积极惩罚这种行为。当前的上币模式存在问题，因为正如 Movement 所做的那样，你可以简单地支付一家 KOL 营销机构以在 TGE 前提升在亚洲的参与度。
3、价格可能在我写这篇文章时已经发生了变化，但作为参考，我取的价格是：Move 为$0.4，KAITO 为$1.3，Mantra 为$6。
4、如果你是一名交易者，远离这些代币。因为这些团队可以随心所欲地操控价格。他们掌控了所有的流通量，因此也控制了资金流动和代币价格。（非财务建议，NFA）
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