Ethereum Spot ETF Sees Continuous Inflows, Yet Why Does ETH Price Remain Unaffected?
原文标题:《你猜谁在砸盘 ETH?》
原文作者:Azuma,Odaily 星球日报

本轮周期内,ETH 的表现大幅落后于市场整体,有人将其归因于「车重难拉」,有人指责以太坊基金会(EF)「德不配位」,而最近的这个周末,Layer 2 又成为了社区口诛笔伐的对象。
2 月 9 日,上一轮周期的 DeFi 之神、现 Sonic 联合创始人 Andre Cronje(AC)于 X 发文,怒喷 Layer 2 通过持续抛售排序器收益获利颇丰,已成为了以太坊的寄生虫。
「成为 Layer 2 -- 运行一个中心化排序器 -- 收取 1.2 亿美元的费用 -- 再向以太坊支付 1000 万美元用于 DA 和安全 -- 之后抛售 1.1 亿美元获利 -- 然后还号称是「以太坊同盟」…… 我不理解以太坊社区到底是怎么说服自己接受这个逻辑的。Layer 2 已成为了以太坊再次通胀的主因。」
Layer 2 的排序器收益
Layer 2 的排序器收益争议已是一个老生常谈的话题。
排序器是 Layer 2 并不可少的一个角色,其主要效用为: 1)收集用户交易,按特定顺序打包成批次(Batch);2)在交易最终上链前,为用户提供即时交易确认;3)将交易数据压缩后提交至 Layer 1,降低 gas 成本。
在 Layer 2 的去中心化愿景中,排序器运行的去中心化是必不可少的一步,但现实情况是,几乎所有 Layer 2 的排序器都由开发团队负责运行,这也是长期以来围绕着 Layer 2 的最大诟病之一。
为什么 Layer 2 迟迟无法完成排序器的去中心化?这其中固然也有一定的技术及运营原因,但不可忽视的另一大原因在于——在真实环境下,排序器的运行是一项非常「有利可图」的生意。
排序器运行的直接收益来源主要包括: 1)交易手续费差价;2)MEV 捕获;3)资金沉淀利息。

Odaily 注:图为 DeepSeek 老师的进一步精解。
这项生意到底有多赚钱?我们可以通过 2 月 4 日单日的数据粗略窥探。
2 月 4 日,受行情集体波动影响,Arbitrum 单日在 Layer 2 层面收取了 104 万美元的费用,同时支付给 Layer 1 的最终结算成本不到 2 万美元——这意味着仅仅 1 天时间内,该链就通过交易手续费价差赚取了上百万美元收益。

矛头瞄准 Base
作为以太坊生态最为活跃的 Layer 2 网络,Base 长期处在相关舆论的中心位置。随着关于 Layer 2 排序器收益问题的争论愈演愈烈,社区也开始将矛头瞄准了 Base。
Lucidity CIO Santisa 于 X 率先开炮,指责 Base 自主网上线以来将所有的排序器收益都转入了 Coinbase 之内,有理由怀疑这些 ETH 都已被抛售。
「自上线以来,BASE 一直在将排序器费用转入 Coinbase。我们不知道他们是否已出售,但我们知道他们没有在 Base 上部署这些资金,或是将其保留在链上。由于缺乏进一步透明度,我们可以合理地认为他们已经抛售了。他们与以太坊的立场并不一致。」

Odaily 注:图为 Base 排序器收入地址(0xEc8103eb573150cB92f8AF612e0072843db2295F)。
随后,Sonic 团队成员 The Assistant 进一步接力,结合 Coinbase 的财报数据剖析了 Base 是否已将这些 ETH 售出。
The Assistant 指出,链上数据可查(参考前文 Santisa 贴出的地址),Base 在过去 12 个月内通过排序器赚取了超 1 亿美元的收益,利润率超过 90%,所有这些费用都已通过 Base -- 以太坊 -- Coinbase 的路径转移到了交易所内。
根据 Coinbase 的公开财报数据,截至 2023 年 6 月 30 日(参见 2023 年 Q2 财报第 66 页),Coinbase 的资产负债表上持有约 2.3 亿美元的 ETH,当时 ETH 价格为 1934 美元,这意味着 Coinbase 持有 118924 ETH;截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日(参见 2024 年 Q3 财报第 22 页),Coinbase 的资产负债表上持有 119696 ETH。


The Assistant 最后质问表示,自 Base 上线以来,Coinbase 仅在其资产负债表仅增持了 772 ETH,那么价值上亿美元的 Base 排序器收入去了哪呢?答案似乎只有一个……
可能有人会质疑,Base 作为一个(名义上的)独立网络,其收入不应被计入 Coinbase 的资产负债表,这一质疑同样不合理,因为 Coinbase 在过往多期财报中均曾重点提及 Base 收入的增加。
借着 The Assistant 的调查内容,AC 再次转发并进一步开火:
「以太坊社区在为他们的 Layer 2 感到骄傲,但 Layer 2 天天在做的事情就是将费用收入从 Layer 2 转移到 Layer 1,然后转移到 Coinbase 抛售。这就是以太坊生态的领跑者。以太坊社区醒醒吧。」
Vitalik 的潜在态度如何?
截至发文,Vitalik 尚未就 AC 以及其他社区成员的指责作出回应,但在 1 月 24 日的亲笔文章(《舆论重压下,Vitalik 发文喊话 L2:回头支持 ETH 吧》)中,我们可以大致看出 Vitalik 对于当下的 Layer 2 运行现状已有所不满。
Vitalik 在该文中提到,要明确 ETH 的经济模型,确保 ETH 在 Layer 2 密集型世界中也能继续累积价值。在执行层面,Vitalik 则鼓励 Layer 2 通过贡献一定比例的费用来支持 ETH,这可以通过销毁部分费用、永久抵押并将收益捐献给以太坊生态系统公共产品或其他一些方案来实现。
简单翻译下这段话:Layer 2 吃相不要太难看,是时候让出一些蛋糕了。
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