El Niño Will Impact Latin America Amid the Hormuz Crisis

Latin America is facing a complex scenario due to the arrival of the El Niño phenomenon, in a context affected by the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, which impacts the global supply of essential inputs for agricultural production. Máximo Torero, chief economist of the FAO, warned about the urgency of acting in the face of combined risks. The conflict in Hormuz affects the flow of resources such as oil and natural gas, while El Niño can generate both excess rainfall and droughts. The phenomenon will have unequal effects in the region; in Peru, flooding is expected on the northern coast and drought in highland areas, while a similar dynamic is projected for Chile. Fruit crops, corn, and wheat are the most exposed, while soybeans may adapt better. In fishing, species such as salmon and anchoveta could move to deeper waters, affecting artisanal fishing. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center estimates an 81% probability of a strong El Niño event occurring between October and December, with effects that could extend to 2027. The FAO insists on implementing preventive measures, such as investing in infrastructure and developing more resilient seeds. The Central American Dry Corridor is one of the regions most exposed to rainfall deficits, where El Niño could exacerbate food insecurity. The effects of the phenomenon could translate into lower food production and an increase in damage from extreme weather events.

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