Dollar-Won Exchange Rate Expected to Rise Above 1,380 Won

The dollar-won exchange rate is showing potential for an increase around the 1,380 won mark as of the 31st. Following Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, the dollar has strengthened, reflecting domestic supply and demand factors. According to Yonhap Infomax, the dollar-won exchange rate is likely to rise near the 1,380 won level, influenced by Warsh's hawkish remarks. On the 28th, Warsh mentioned that core inflation is moving towards the target at a sufficient pace, leaving the door open for additional policy responses. He emphasized that the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation stability target remains firm. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch, the likelihood of a rate freeze in September has decreased to 43.1%. The dollar index has risen to around 99.7, and the dollar-yen exchange rate has returned to the 160 yen level. The dollar-won exchange rate may be limited in its rise due to export companies' negotiation volumes and inflows from global bond index inclusion. Conversely, payment demand from importers and foreign dividend remittances support the lower end. Foreign stock selling pressure may also impact exchange rate supply and demand. Japan has intervened by buying yen and selling dollars, and Middle Eastern factors may also affect the foreign exchange market. The dollar-won exchange rate has repeatedly dipped below and rebounded from the 1,380 won level last week.

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