CITIC Securities' research report points out that the recent adjustment in tech stocks cannot be simply attributed to the high long-term bond yields in the U.S. It involves forward pricing issues related to AI stocks, with three key factors at play: 1) Whether the pace and space of commercialization meet market expectations; 2) Whether computational advantages lead to market share and pricing power; 3) Whether the current gap in computational power will significantly widen the future disparities in AI models. Currently, the market is generally concerned about the pace and space of commercialization, with the biggest potential variable being whether "anti-distillation" will once again widen the gap between models. On the macroeconomic front, the impact of the U.S. Treasury's repurchase of long-term bonds is limited, and in the short term, a weaker dollar and reduced interest rate hike expectations may favor the convergence of K-shaped differentiation in global markets. However, the factors driving the sustained rise in U.S. long-term rates have not fundamentally changed, and disturbances may continue to arise in the future. Under the influence of these external factors, the funding structure of A-shares in the short term complicates market dynamics, and during this volatile market phase, it is essential to manage psychological expectations and avoid excessive grand narratives.
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