Arthur Hayes Interview: Bitcoin Has Bottomed, Which Tokens Can Outperform Bitcoin?

Original Title: Global Instability Is Fueling the Greatest Crypto Boom Yet with Arthur Hayes and Mike Silagadze

Original Source: The Rollup

Original Translation: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily

Editor's Note: The renowned cryptocurrency-themed interview channel The Rollup has today released the latest episode of their conversation. This episode features BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who has had a strong track record in recent market predictions, and Mike Silagadze, CEO of ether.fi, who has just launched a $40 million fund. The discussion covers market predictions, ETH/BTC price performance, BTC versus gold, fundamental analysis, and more. The following are selected excerpts from this interview (with a focus on Arthur Hayes' remarks), translated by Odaily Planet Daily.

Q1: Has the correction ended?

Arthur Hayes: I believe the market has definitely bottomed out around $74,500. At that time, the Trump administration took an extreme stance on tariffs but had to compromise under the pressure of a financial market crash—after all, the Trump team still faces the pressure of the 2026 midterm elections.

So the market has bottomed out, funds have returned, and Bitcoin has rebounded by about 25%. Do you remember the market low point after the 2022 FTX debacle? At that time, Yellen chose to reduce reverse repos from $250 million to 0, and then Bitcoin rose nearly 6 times. I believe we will see a similar upward trend. This is the beginning of Bitcoin's path to $1 million.

Q2: How long can market liquidity and positive sentiment last? Is the rise still related to the rate cut expectations driven by Trump?

Arthur Hayes: There is some confusion in focusing too much on rate cuts. People always want to apply the experience from 2008-2019—if there is quantitative easing policy, the Fed prints money every week, and we can make a stable profit by buying assets, this has become a conditioned reflex in the financial market. But the game rules have changed now. When ordinary people realize that quantitative easing means inflation, and that inflation will affect the ruling party's election prospects, the policy toolbox must be updated. The year-end 2022 operation by Yellen is a typical case—although not nominally QE, it created liquidity in some form, driving the stock market, cryptocurrency, and gold to skyrocket in the following 18-24 months until Trump took office.

People are still waiting for Powell to cut rates or restart QE, which is completely a wild goose chase.

The current U.S. Treasury is implementing a bond repurchase plan, which, although not as explicit as QE, is essentially providing leverage to bond buyers. With the government deficit expanding, trillions of dollars in new debt will flood the market, meaning liquidity is still being injected, just in a different guise. If you insist on waiting for the traditional QE signal to enter the market, you might still be on the sidelines when Bitcoin hits $50,000.

The real data to watch is volatility, especially the Bond Market Volatility Index (MOVE). When this index breaks 140, policymakers will definitely intervene: for example, on April 8, when it hit 172 intraday, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon immediately criticized Trump's tariff policy on TV, prompting a swift policy change from Trump; in September 2022, when MOVE surpassed 140, Yellen quickly adjusted the bond issuance structure, leading to a market rebound. History has repeatedly shown that as the leverage ratio of the financial system rises, the intervention threshold of policymakers is decreasing.

Trump, as a "volatility generator," is actually a bullish factor for Bitcoin. His strategy of "maximum pressure-probe reaction-quick turnaround" plays into the unpredictability that the crypto market thrives on. We don't need to predict policy direction; we just need to capitalize on rising volatility—because the highly leveraged financial system simply can't handle sharp fluctuations.

Q3: Is the surge in gold prices equally fierce, and is the logic behind Bitcoin and gold's rise the same?

Arthur Hayes: I believe gold and Bitcoin are different expressions of the same phenomenon, with distinct groups buying them. Ultimately, I think you hold gold because central banks buy gold, and you hold Bitcoin because the global retail population buys Bitcoin. They're trying to hedge against the same thing—high inflation and the potential collapse of the post-war fiat financial system.

Q4: Why does debt refinancing inject liquidity into the system?

Arthur Hayes: The key is understanding how "cash and carry trades" operate. Hedge funds leverage the spread between cash bonds and futures contracts for arbitrage. As the Treasury relaxes bank capital requirements, these funds can participate in government bond auctions with higher leverage. While the Treasury's repurchase plan itself doesn't create liquidity, it maintains the functioning of the bond market, allowing the Treasury to continuously increase bond issuance—in the context of a 22% surge in the deficit rate (first six months of the 2024 fiscal year compared to the same period last year), this mechanism fundamentally sustains liquidity supply through financial engineering.

Q5: Which Tokens Can Outperform Bitcoin? Will they be tokens with real cash flow?

Arthur Hayes: This reminds me of Buffett's quote: "Price is what you pay, value is what you get."

The key to this question depends on the entry price — if you buy into ether.fi at $0.55 (Odaily Planet Daily Note: Another guest in the interview is Mike Silagadze, CEO of ether.fi), assuming Mike's described vision comes to fruition, it could indeed outperform Bitcoin. However, if you buy at an inflated price, even if the project generates an additional $1 billion in revenue, the percentage gain from that point may still struggle to beat Bitcoin.

Any asset can potentially outperform Bitcoin, but it depends on two variables: the buy-in price range and the income growth curve over the holding period. There are many underpriced cash flow tokens that have not been fully priced, and they do have the potential to surge when the "alt season" or "fundamental season" arrives (i.e., during the Bitcoin dominance peak stage).

Q6: Has Bitcoin's Market Dominance Topped Out?

Arthur Hayes: I don't think so.

Institutional investors and family offices are currently undergoing a cognitive awakening — Trump shattered the illusion of "American exceptionalism," exposing that this empire prioritizes its base over capital security. This batch of funds will begin to understand the meaning of Bitcoin's existence. They will increase their holdings in gold, reduce exposure to the Nasdaq and U.S. Treasury bonds, and instead allocate assets that are detached from the current system. This migration will first focus on Bitcoin rather than other tokens — the wealthy will not initially buy altcoins.

Q7: I heard that Maelstrom (Arthur Hayes's fund) is doing some mergers and acquisitions, integrating new crypto businesses?

Arthur Hayes: We are operating a small M&A fund. There are some crypto businesses with very good cash flow that have been misunderstood by traditional investors for some reason.

We have a lot of flexibility in capital deployment because it's all my own money, with no Private Placement Memorandum (PPM) restrictions. We are looking at several companies and may engage in a leveraged buyout of one as a sponsor to improve its business. There are many niche high-cash-flow businesses in the crypto space that may not be entirely blockchain businesses but service providers that traditional private market investors are not very fond of because they are not high-growth-potential companies like Coinbase. However, assuming this sector will grow, we need certain services that only crypto-native institutions can provide.

Q 8: Currently, what is your criteria for asset selection?

Arthur Hayes: First and foremost, what I look for are protocols or businesses where users pay real money to use the service—not based on token incentives, but where users willingly use stablecoins or other cryptocurrencies to purchase services. The most typical example is a trading platform, such as Hyperliquid, which is a prime example, capturing 10-20% of the perpetual swaps market within 18 months from zero. They have built an extremely efficient order book system, where user fees go directly into token buybacks, making this straightforward business model very convincing.

The second key point is how token holders benefit. Many projects are now making a killing (such as some top-tier DEXes), but token holders are left out. Take Uniswap, for example—even if the protocol makes a lot of money, holding UNI doesn't matter, which is why I don't pay attention to its price at all. If a project was launched through a token issuance, but after the protocol's success, the community does not share in the profits, that is simply being rogue.

My core criteria for token investment is very clear: first, there must be genuine paying users, and second, there must be a clear profit-sharing mechanism—whether through buybacks, dividends, or other forms. Only in this way can I calculate the expected APY, conduct cash flow discount analysis, and determine if the current valuation is reasonable. For the past month and a half, I have been patiently positioning myself in such projects because the market's irrational sell-off has created excellent buying opportunities—solely because they are "not Bitcoin," they were oversold, while protocols with strong cash flows ended up in a golden pit.

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