Arthur Hayes and the Bitcoin Net Liquidity Conundrum: Navigating the Crypto Rollercoaster

By: crypto insight|2026/03/12 14:00:00

Key Takeaways:

Arthur Hayes refrains from Bitcoin purchases until the Federal Reserve expands the money supply.
Hayes’s “Net Liquidity” strategy reflects a wait-and-see approach due to insufficient market liquidity.
Bitcoin faces resistance below $90,000, with a potential slide toward $60,000 if support fails.
The market’s future hinges on monetary policy shifts and effects on liquidity conditions.

WEEX Crypto News, 2026-03-12 05:14:33

Arthur Hayes Stops Buying Bitcoin: A Strategic Pause

In the unpredictable world of cryptocurrency, Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO, is taking an unorthodox path by halting Bitcoin acquisitions. Hayes emphasizes that he won’t invest his capital until he sees explicit actions by the Federal Reserve to expand the money supply. His pause comes at a time when Bitcoin struggles to break new ground, oscillating under the critical $90,000 mark.

Hayes articulates a clear strategy based on the “Net Liquidity” metric, defined by subtracting the Treasury General Account (TGA) and Reverse Repo (RRP) from the Fed’s balance sheet. This formula, he argues, is crucial for determining the true market potential, as nominal prices don’t reflect underlying liquidity.

Understanding Net Liquidity and Its Impact on Bitcoin

Arthur Hayes’s decision to adopt a cautious stance originates from his Net Liquidity model, which currently indicates inadequate conditions for a sustained Bitcoin rally. According to him, liquidity is the genuine driver of macro crypto cycles, with fiat currency devaluation playing a pivotal role. Historical data support his thesis, showing Bitcoin’s divergence from bond yields—a predictor of looming volatility.

Hayes warns that without the Federal Reserve resuming Quantitative Easing, the economy’s other forces, such as increased military spending, are insufficient to drive asset valuations upward. The market anticipates liquidity that has yet to materialize; a reality check for investors with speculative positions.

Bitcoin’s Critical Support and Resistance Levels

Bitcoin’s trajectory reveals an uneasy balance between institutional interest and macroeconomic fatigue. Currently, Bitcoin trades just below the $90,000 psychological barrier, a point of frequent resistance. A breach below $60,000 could precipitate a sharp decline, flushing out overly optimistic traders. For Hayes, the $60,000 support level is decisive, with potential to trigger a major sell-off due to cascading liquidations.

Conversely, if Bitcoin manages to surpass $90,000 on strong trading volume, this would invalidate bearish inclinations and potentially catalyze a rapid climb toward $100,000. This scenario demands a keen market perception to identify the resurgence of liquidity that could pave the way for aggressive market accumulation.

-- Price

Waiting for the Right Monetary Policy Conditions

Hayes’s emphasis on Net Liquidity is a call for patience, waiting for the Federal Reserve’s policy maneuvers. If monetary easing resumes, it could fulfill market liquidity expectations, flipping current conditions to favor an upward Bitcoin trajectory.

In the short term, traders may find opportunities by analyzing market dips and using mathematical models to predict safe entry points. However, should external economic shocks force a reduction in interest rates, it could dissolve Bitcoin’s $90,000 cap overnight, inviting renewed investor interest.

The Dynamics of Cryptocurrency Markets

The rhythm of cryptocurrency markets is deeply influenced by the broader economic context, with Federal Reserve policies acting as a catalyst for market movements. In 2026, as traditional financial systems find themselves at crossroads, the cryptocurrency market’s future largely depends on how central banks adapt to emerging challenges.

Investors and traders must enrich their strategies with insights into policy decisions, liquidity conditions, and market psychology to navigate the digital currency echelons. In the volatile world of crypto, understanding these dynamics is not just beneficial; it’s essential.

FAQ

What is Arthur Hayes’s current strategy regarding Bitcoin investment?

Arthur Hayes is withholding Bitcoin purchases, focusing on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. He awaits explicit liquidity increases before re-entering the market, as his Net Liquidity model currently shows insufficient support for sustained Bitcoin price growth.

How does the Net Liquidity metric work in cryptocurrency markets?

The Net Liquidity metric subtracts the Treasury General Account and Reverse Repo balances from the Fed’s total balance sheet. This assesses real liquidity, distinguishing between nominal price levels and underlying monetary support.

Why is $60,000 a critical level for Bitcoin’s price action?

The $60,000 level for Bitcoin represents a pivotal support. Should this threshold be breached, it could trigger a massive sell-off driven by investor liquidations. It’s a crucial point for traders monitoring market trends.

What conditions could catalyze a Bitcoin rally beyond $90,000?

A rally over $90,000 would likely require robust market liquidity, possibly spurred by Federal Reserve policy shifts, quantitative easing, or significant external economic stimulus, effectively invalidating bearish forecasts.

How should investors prepare for Bitcoin market movements?

Investors should remain informed about macroeconomic trends, specifically Federal Reserve policies, and analyze liquidity indicators. They must be vigilant, ready to adapt strategies based on market cues while weighing opportunities against liquidity trends.

On March 16, 2026, in Dallas, Texas, USA, CanGu Company (New York Stock Exchange code: CANG, hereinafter referred to as "CanGu" or the "Company") today announced its unaudited financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. As a btc-42">bitcoin mining enterprise relying on a globally operated layout and dedicated to building an integrated energy and AI computing power platform, CanGu is actively advancing its business transformation and infrastructure development.

2025 Full Year and Fourth Quarter Financial and Operational Highlights

• Financial Performance:

Total revenue for the full year 2025 was $688.1 million, with $179.5 million in the fourth quarter.

Bitcoin mining business revenue for the full year was $675.5 million, with $172.4 million in the fourth quarter.

Full-year adjusted EBITDA was $24.5 million, while the fourth quarter was -$156.3 million.

• Mining Operations and Costs:

A total of 6,594.6 bitcoins were mined throughout the year, averaging 18.07 bitcoins per day; of which 1,718.3 bitcoins were mined in the fourth quarter, averaging 18.68 bitcoins per day.

The average mining cost for the full year (excluding miner depreciation) was $79,707 per bitcoin, and for the fourth quarter, it was $84,552;

The all-in sustaining costs were $97,272 and $106,251 per bitcoin, respectively.

As of the end of December 2025, the company has cumulatively produced 7,528.4 bitcoins since entering the bitcoin mining business.

• Strategic Progress:

The company has completed the termination of the American Depositary Receipt (ADR) program and transitioned to a direct listing on the NYSE to enhance information transparency and align with its strategic direction, with a long-term goal of expanding its investor base.

CEO Paul Yu stated: "2025 marked the company's first full year as a bitcoin mining enterprise, characterized by rapid execution and structural reshaping. We completed a comprehensive adjustment of our asset system and established a globally distributed mining network. Additionally, the company introduced a new management team, further strengthening our capabilities and competitive advantage in the digital asset and energy infrastructure space. The completion of the NYSE direct listing and USD pricing also signifies our transformation into a global AI infrastructure company."

"As we enter 2026, the company will continue to optimize its balance sheet structure and enhance operational efficiency and cost resilience through adjustments to the miner portfolio. At the same time, we are advancing our strategic transformation into an AI infrastructure provider. Leveraging EcoHash, we will utilize our capabilities in scalable computing power and energy networks to provide cost-effective AI inference solutions. The relevant site transformations and product development are progressing simultaneously, and the company is well-positioned to sustain its execution in the new phase."

The company's Chief Financial Officer, Michael Zhang, stated: "By 2025, the company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth through its scaled mining operations. Despite recording a net loss of $452.8 million from ongoing operations, mainly due to one-time transformation costs and market-driven fair value adjustments, the company, from a financial perspective, will reduce its leverage, optimize its Bitcoin reserve strategy and liquidity management, introduce new capital to strengthen its financial position, and seize investment opportunities in high-potential areas such as AI infrastructure while navigating market volatility."

Fourth Quarter 2025 Ongoing Operations Financial Performance

Revenue

The total revenue for the fourth quarter was $1.795 billion. Of this, the Bitcoin mining business contributed $1.724 billion in revenue, generating 1,718.3 Bitcoins during the quarter. Revenue from the international automobile trading business was $4.8 million.

Operating Costs and Expenses

The total operating costs and expenses for the fourth quarter amounted to $4.56 billion, primarily attributed to expenses related to the Bitcoin mining business, as well as impairment of mining machines and fair value losses on Bitcoin collateral receivables.

This includes:

· Cost of Revenue (excluding depreciation): $1.553 billion

· Cost of Revenue (depreciation): $38.1 million

· Operating Expenses: $9.9 million (including related-party expenses of $1.1 million)

· Mining Machine Impairment Loss: $81.4 million

· Fair Value Loss on Bitcoin Collateral Receivables: $171.4 million

Profit Situation

The operating loss for the fourth quarter was $276.6 million, a significant increase from a loss of $0.7 million in the same period of 2024, primarily due to the downward trend in Bitcoin prices.

The net loss from ongoing operations was $285 million, compared to a net profit of $2.4 million in the same period last year.

The adjusted EBITDA was -$156.3 million, compared to $2.4 million in the same period last year.

Full Year 2025 Ongoing Operations Financial Performance

Revenue

The total revenue for the full year was $6.881 billion. Of this, the revenue from the Bitcoin mining business was $6.755 billion, with a total output of 6,594.6 Bitcoins for the year. Revenue from the international automobile trading business was $9.8 million.

Operating Costs and Expenses

The total annual operating costs and expenses amount to $1.1 billion.

Specifically, they include:

· Revenue Cost (excluding depreciation): $543.3 million

· Revenue Cost (depreciation): $116.6 million

· Operating Expenses: $28.9 million (including related-party expenses of $1.1 million)

· Miner Impairment Loss: $338.3 million

· Bitcoin Collateral Receivable Fair Value Change Loss: $96.5 million

Profitability

The full-year operating loss is $437.1 million. The continuing operations net loss is $452.8 million, while in 2024, there was a net profit of $4.8 million.

The 2025 non-GAAP adjusted net profit is $24.5 million (compared to $5.7 million in 2024). This measure does not include share-based compensation expenses; refer to "Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures" for details.

Financial Position

As of December 31, 2025, the company's key assets and liabilities are as follows:

· Cash and Cash Equivalents: $41.2 million

· Bitcoin Collateral Receivable (Non-current, related party): $663.0 million

· Miner Net Value: $248.7 million

· Long-Term Debt (related party): $557.6 million

In February 2026, the company sold 4,451 bitcoins and repaid a portion of related-party long-term debt to reduce financial leverage and optimize the asset-liability structure.

Stock Repurchase

As per the stock repurchase plan disclosed on March 13, 2025, as of December 31, 2025, the company had repurchased a total of 890,155 shares of Class A common stock for approximately $1.2 million.

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